Miami 7 Day Weather Forecast with Current Weather Conditions for , FL." /> (2024)

706FXUS62 KMFL 301400AFDMFLArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Miami FL1000 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024...New UPDATE....UPDATE...Issued at 949 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024A few showers developed along the land breeze boundary offshore inthe Atlantic this morning including one that prompted a funnelcloud report from the observer at FXE. Light wind flow prevailsand convective activity is expected to increase in coverage withthe focus shifting westward through the day. Heat index valuesshould remain below heat advisory criteria due to the early cloudcover. No major changes to the forecast anticipated throughmidday.&&.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024It will be another relatively wet day over SFL as above-averagemoisture (PWATs 2-2.2 inches) remains pooled south of a diffuseboundary/shear line over Central/Northern Florida. Convection willinitially be primarily sea-breeze driven, although unlikeyesterday there will be a more notable SErly component to thesteering flow which should lend itself to a quicker northwestwardpropagation of convection into the Interior and SWFL with time(which hopefully will reduce the hydro threat for the east coastmetro). Still can`t rule out localized hydro concerns over SWFLwhere totals in the 2-3 inch range will be possible along theslowly propagating Gulf breeze. Although portions of MD-Browardmay flirt with heat advisory criteria, the expectation is thatearly afternoon convection/cloud cover should generally keep mostareas under criteria today.Drier mid-lvl air associated with a SAL intrusion will filter infrom the SE tonight, with PWATs decreasing into the 1.5 to 1.7inch range on Wednesday. Additionally, the H5 ridge will buildback SWrd toward the area resulting in mid-lvl height rises andmodest synoptic subsidence. This will reduce rain chances over thearea with only isolated coverage expected over SEFL withscattered activity expected over the Interior/SW Florida whereconvergence will be maximized in the easterly low-lvl regime.Given the reduced cloud cover and precipitation coverage, heatadvisories will likely be required for at least portions of thearea, as peak heat indices will likely exceed 105 degreesWednesday afternoon.&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024Thursday will be fairly similar to Wednesday with prevailing low-lvl easterly flow, below normal PWATs, and mid-lvl ridging inplace. This will favor another day of Interior/SWFL focusedconvection, and likely heat headline concerns. Moisture willslowly increase on Friday, resulting in increasing rain chancesarea-wide, although with the continuance of the easterly regime,the spatial distribution of rain chances should remain the samewith the highest chances over Interior and SWFLHeading into the weekend, attention will turn to the tropicalwave currently over the Central Atlantic and outlooked by NHC witha 60% chance of development over the next 7 days. There is stillfairly substantial divergence among guidance on this system`sevolution with the more disorganized solutions favoring a furtherwest track, (generally into the GOM), and the more organizedsolutions favoring a more eastern track (some well east of the FLPeninsula). This makes sense, as a deeper system is more likely to"feel" the temporary weakness in the mid-lvl ridge which isprogged to develop this weekend in response to an amplifyingshortwave over the eastern US, while a shallower system would bemore sensitive to the low-lvl flow, which is generally easterly.All that being said, given the wave is currently quitedisorganized and broad with a defined low-lvl center yet to beestablished, there is no real compelling reason to side with onecamp or the other. Additionally it should be noted that a moreorganized storm does not necessarily imply greater impacts to SFLas we could potentially lie on the drier west side of such asystem, whereas conversely a "sloppy" disorganized system couldresult in greater rainfall. Regardless of specifics, apart fromthe organized solutions at the eastern edge of the currentguidance envelope (which would keep us mostly dry), most solutionswould favor increasing rain chances through the weekend as theridge breaks down and tropical moisture increases ahead of thedisturbance.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 752 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024The morning convective focus along the Atlantic will shift inlandthrough the day. Bouts of sub-VFR are possible with short-fusedAMDs for IFR/LIFR not out of the question today. Activity shoulddiminish during the evening and return again on Wednesday morning.&&.MARINE...Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024Winds will generally be light and sea-breeze driven today, withgentle to moderate E-SE winds becoming established for the mid-week period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, which willproduce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Late thisweek into the upcoming weekend, a tropical disturbance mayapproach the area bringing the potential for increased winds andseas.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Miami 92 80 93 81 / 60 20 20 10West Kendall 92 77 93 79 / 70 20 20 10Opa-Locka 93 80 93 81 / 60 20 20 10Homestead 90 80 91 81 / 60 10 20 10Fort Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 60 20 20 10N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 92 81 / 60 10 20 10Pembroke Pines 94 79 95 81 / 60 20 20 10West Palm Beach 91 79 92 80 / 60 20 20 0Boca Raton 92 80 93 81 / 60 20 10 10Naples 90 77 93 79 / 70 30 30 10&&.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FL...None.AM...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CarrLONG TERM....CarrAVIATION...RAG