The Satchel: Insight about Kim Pegula's health, Bills venting, tracking potential Sabres moves (2024)

Buffalo Bills fans are steaming.

Should Buffalo Sabres fans be dreaming?

We address all your deepest concerns and best questions in The Satchel.

Maybe I’ve watched too much “Succession,” but was Jessie Pegula’s article an attempt to position herself within the family? Perhaps they agreed she was the right person to speak on behalf of everyone, but the lack of a joint statement seems … odd. Lines like “My mom always wanted me to be involved; she wanted me to learn and eventually do what she was doing,” and her admission about the thought of leaving tennis to work for the family strike me as planting a flag? I can’t help but think about the ownership struggle for the Broncos between the Bowlen family and ensuing litigation. — Matthew R.

First, I find it encouraging the Pegula family finally felt comfortable enough to provide insight about Kim Pegula’s health, from her harrowing cardiac arrest, daughter Kelly’s life-saving involvement and a long recovery that seems to be impressing caregivers.

The timing of Jessica Pegula’s essay wasn’t coincidental. Terry Pegula will attend Super Bowl festivities this week and will be inundated with questions about his wife. As was the case at Wimbledon, where Jessica would need to participate in news conferences, a family decision was made for her to act as a kind of spokesperson. To go public at the Players’ Tribune gives the Pegulas some space.

Jessica doesn’t post that essay without her family’s consent. Terry has been fiercely protective of information about Kim’s recovery.

No descendent-successor conspiracy is in the works.

While watching families tear each other to shreds over their inheritance makes for compelling television, I’m confident Buffalo sports fans will avoid ownership drama reminiscent of the fictional Roys or the very real Bowlens.

But those who pay attention read Jessica’s essay and saw clues about the future of Pegula Sports and Entertainment, which owns teams in the NFL, NHL, American Hockey League and National Lacrosse League.

Terry has said all along that he will keep the Bills and Sabres within his family after he’s gone. That remains the case. He will be 72 next month. Kim, 18 years younger, appeared to provide a longer interval from parents to children, but probably no longer.

As Jessica wrote, her mom has “significant expressive aphasia and significant memory issues. She can read, write, and understand pretty well, but she has trouble finding the words to respond. … She was the shift in culture, positivity, and the heartbeat of many of the employees. She gave everyone so much of her time and effort. She lived it and loved it, and it was felt by everyone she met. Now we come to the realization that all of that is most likely gone. That she won’t be able to be that person anymore.”

Jessica mentioning her willingness to leave her successful tennis career earlier than planned underscores a long-held belief she eventually would assume the lead role, just not decades down the road anymore. Her husband, Taylor Gahagen, is PSE’s director of corporate development.

Kelly Pegula has been involved with the teams’ marketing and social media departments (Ralph Wilson’s niece, future executive Mary Owen, got her start in a similar way on BuffaloBills.com). Matthew Pegula graduated from Syracuse two years ago with a degree in sport management and has been involved in learning the front office.

All you must do is watch Netflix for seven minutes to learn families can crumble over a billionaire’s inheritance, but the Pegulas are close, and local sports fans can only hope Terry and Kim learned from the Bowlens’ debacle.

Broncos owner Pat Bowlen wanted to leave the team to his seven children, but suffered from Alzheimer’s and relinquished day-to-day control in 2013. He assembled a three-person trust to assume control and determine future ownership.

Two daughters were interested. The trust rejected one and favored the other. Bowlen died in 2019, and, after prolonged litigation, the Broncos were sold to outsiders Rob Walton and Greg Penner for $4.65 billion eight months ago.

Is the Buffalo Bills’ stadium deal jeopardized by the health of the owners? Should taxpayers be concerned? — Nathan R.

Not at all. There have been no delays in the process due to Kim Pegula’s absence. Bills executive vice president and chief operating officer Ron Raccuia and outside counsel Scott Zolke were handling negotiations from the start and will take them across the goal line.

Zolke is a prominent team, venue and media attorney with such notable roles as the Vegas Golden Knights’ landing an NHL expansion club, Tribune Media’s sale of the Chicago Cubs and Steve Ballmer’s purchase of the Los Angeles Clippers.

Now that a new COO is in place and the Bills’ stadium deal is essentially done, when does the KeyBank Center finally get renovated? Do we also need to wait for the Delaware North contract to finally expire, and how much should we be worried about the lease being up in 2025? — Bob V.

PSE and the Sabres last month hired John Roth as new chief operating officer, with Raccuia retaining that role for the Bills. Roth will report directly to Terry Pegula, and sources tell me the move had nothing to do with Kim Pegula’s health.

The combination of Roth’s arrival and the Bills’ stadium deal nearing finalization can only move matters along at 27-year-old KeyBank Center, where fans have been begging for upgrades. I’m told any Delaware North contract is moot.

Based on both teams’ current trajectories (and a lot of wishful thinking) which team makes an appearance in the Super Bowl/Stanley Cup first? Bills or Sabres? — Chris M.

I’ve gotten repetitive in emphasizing how difficult it is to win the Super Bowl. Championship math is daunting. The Bills were the preseason betting favorites to win it all. Implied odds at Caesars Sportsbook gave them a 14.3 percent chance. ESPN’s Football Power Index gave them a league-high 6.9 percent chance.

Despite all the luck needed to avoid injuries and unforeseen calamities, the Lombardi Trophy road is much quicker and potentially shorter with a first-round bye.

The Stanley Cup is sports’ hardest trophy to obtain, and reliable goaltending is required. The Sabres haven’t convinced me their trio of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Craig Anderson and Eric Comrie can backstop them to the playoffs let alone to a championship. Maybe with Devon Levi or a free-agent goaltender, but even then …

I have to go with the Bills. I understand fans are dejected at the moment, but the Bills are on the cusp and should stay within striking distance as long as they have Josh Allen.

If the Sabres wind up making a move for someone who requires prospects back (say, Timo Meier), which Buffalo prospects would you consider “untouchable”? — Brian K.

For all such Sabres questions, The Satchel reaches out to esteemed analyst Kris Baker, whose Twitter handle is @SabresProspects, for Krissakes.

“Probably Devon Levi, and that’s it,” Baker said. “They have a lot of faith invested in Levi. I can argue they acted the way they did in free agency because they wanted to keep his path somewhat clear while figuring out where Luukkonen is at.”

One of the most intriguing youngsters Baker would put on the trade block is Czech center Jiri Kulich, last year’s 28th overall draft choice. Kulich has nine goals and 14 assists in 34 games for Rochester.

But with Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn among Buffalo’s top six forwards, Baker asserted minutes can get scarce for additional young players.

“A few years ago,” Baker said, “I would say Jiri Kulich was untouchable. I would really hate to part with him because I think he’s a surefire NHL difference-maker someday, but you’ve got to give to get, and he moves the trade needle.”

Baker, however, stressed his preference would be to remain patient and not divert from a ramp-up plan that has been effective so far.

“I personally would not make a significant trade splash this year,” Baker said. “Continue growing it organically, maybe make a minor depth move to address the defensive corps and see how far this group can go.”

Love the move to lock up Dylan Cozens, but, do you think having the term coincide with Tage Thompson is the best idea? I have memories of the Drury/Briere nightmare dangling in my mind. Maybe I will be too old to care in 2030. — Garret M.

An estimated 36 percent of Satchel readers experienced involuntary eyelid twitches halfway through your question, Garret.

The July 1, 2007, nightmare still haunts Western New York.

The lead to my Buffalo News story the next morning:

“The Buffalo Sabres lost them both.

“Black Sunday will go down as one of the most demoralizing days in franchise history. Gone in the span of about five minutes were co-captains Daniel Briere and Chris Drury. The popular centers signed contracts to play elsewhere, leaving the Sabres with a vestige of their very soul.”

For months, fans dreaded losing one or the other and debated the merits of which one to keep. To watch both leave — when Buffalo conceivably could have kept both — was cruel.

A sequence of incompetence had to transpire for the Sabres to mangle themselves back then, and I can’t foresee that happening again.

Most notably, reality will make decisions easier over the years. We will learn and learn and learn some more about Thompson and Cozens. Their successes, failures, production, injuries, development and every other bit of information will help make the Sabres’ next decisions for them.

A gigantic reason former general manager Darcy Regier and managing partner Larry Quinn couldn’t navigate Drury and Briere was the Sabres’ policy of not signing contract extensions in-season. When the long season was over — back-to-back Eastern Conference Final series, remember — the coveted centers were so close to free agency that they would have been fools not to learn their market values.

But an added kick in the fans’ teeth was learning the Sabres actually worked out a four-year, $21.5 million extension with Drury the previous fall but never presented the contract for him to sign, perhaps because it would have violated that stupid policy and made Briere wonder where his deal was.

Let’s just say I have a lot more faith in how the Sabres operate today than they did 16 years ago.

What will NHL business look like seven years from now? We don’t need to worry about that for a long while, and by then I hope for Sabres fans there are several tough roster decisions to make.

Leslie Frazier ran a defense that was built on his skill players, but never adjusted when those skill players were injured. Ken Dorsey ran an offense built on the long ball and never adjusted when the O-line couldn’t contain long enough for those routes to break open. Why do our coordinators seem to have such a hard time creating interesting wrinkles? Where’s the creativity? I don’t mean college-concept weirdness, I just mean well thought out adjustments. — Brandon S.

Buffalo’s coordinators are in the cross hairs, and that’s common around the NFL. Those roles are the most common targets among 31 fan bases not celebrating a Lombardi Trophy.

Was first-year playcaller Ken Dorsey unimaginative? That’s subjective. Maybe he wasn’t entertaining enough, original enough. Yet the Bills finished second in average points scored, second in yards per play, seventh in yards per pass, tied for second in yards per carry.

Buffalo’s offense remained explosive despite losing Brian Daboll, the man who Thursday night won the NFL’s Coach of the Year Award, assistant quarterback coach Shea Tierney and offensive line coach Bobby Johnson to the New York Giants.

So is there room for Dorsey to improve? I would hope so. Daboll is not a plug-and-play coordinator. Dorsey was potent from the jump and deserves time to grow.

As for Frazier, we must consider how he and head coach Sean McDermott — Frazier doesn’t design schemes without McDermott’s input and approval, after all — shifted on the fly upon Von Miller’s season-ending knee injury in Week 12.

Entering Week 12, Pro Football Focus charted:

• Buffalo’s team pressure rate at 11.8 percent (fifth in the NFL);
• Miller as Buffalo’s best defensive lineman with a 15.7 pressure rate, 27th in the NFL;
• The only other Bills better than the league average of 11.2 percent at that point were Gregory Rousseau at 14.5 percent and Ed Oliver at 13.0 percent;
• Other teammates A.J. Epenesa at 10.5 percent, Shaq Lawson at 10 percent, Boogie Basham at 9.4 percent, Jordan Phillips at 9.2 percent and Daquan Jones at 8.2 percent.

From Week 13 through the playoff loss to Cincinnati, PFF charted:

• Buffalo’s team pressure rate 10.7 percent (13th in the NFL);
• The only Bills better than or at the league average of 11.7 percent over that stretch were Rousseau at 16.3 percent and Epenesa at 11.7 percent;
• Other teammates Basham at 11.1 percent, Lawson at 7.3 percent, Jones at 7.1 percent and Oliver at 6.7 percent.

Minus Miller, the entire Bills’ defensive line struggled to pick up the slack.

What the Bills did was deploy linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds substantially more often.

Entering Week 12:

• Milano rushed 19 times through nine games with 47.7 percent success;
• Edmunds rushed 14 times through eight games with 21.4 percent success.

From Week 13 onward:

• Milano rushed 36 times in seven games with 33.3 percent success;
• Edmunds rushed 32 times in seven games with 21.9 percent success.

Frazier and McDermott did make adjustments, all while losing safety Damar Hamlin and, in the fateful defeat to Cincinnati, replacement Dean Marlowe.

I doubt David Lynch could’ve been any more creative to great effect.

After getting the QB right with Josh Allen, Beane and the front office have largely gotten a pass for pedestrian draft results. Almost no one they’ve selected on Day One or Two in the draft has performed at a level commensurate with their draft status, and it’s now starting to hurt the team’s performance. Oliver, Epenesa, Basham, Singletary, Ford, Moss, even Edmunds … None have met or exceeded their draft value. McDermott making picks with Whaley’s front office got them Tre White, Dawkins and Milano. In the same draft! Either the scouting department needs an overhaul or maybe Beane needs assistance in who is drafted. Your thoughts? — Jeff D.

You’re glossing over some nice selections like tight end Dawson Knox and defensive tackle Harrison Phillips in the third round, receiver Gabriel Davis and slot cornerback Taron Johnson in the fourth round, cornerback Christian Benford in the sixth round and cornerback Dane Jackson in the seventh round.

Yet I detect your angst.

Is the Bills’ scouting department perfect? No, but Beane has accumulated the most experienced and respected group of talent evaluators at One Bills Drive since Bill Polian’s top assistant was John Butler.

Beane’s cabinet has been loaded, stocked with evaluators who were GMs, interviewed to be GMs and gotten hired to be GMs. Until last year, Beane’s top lieutenant was Joe Schoen, now the Giants’ GM. Schoen also took senior Bills scout and former Miami Dolphins GM Dennis Hickey with him to be assistant player personnel director. Beane’s former player personnel director, Dan Morgan, now is the Carolina Panthers’ assistant GM.

Beane’s current top assistant is former Houston Texans GM Brian Gaine. Director of player personnel Terrance Gray was selected last year to the NFL’s new Accelerator Program to promote diversity among decision-makers. Senior pro scouting director Malik Boyd recently interviewed for the Tennessee Titans GM opening. College scouting assistant director Lake Dawson is former Titans VP of player personnel and turned down the Dolphins’ GM offer in 2014.

You want to overhaul all that?

Good luck.

Any chance the Bills move on from Brandon Beane if they have another early playoff exit this upcoming season? — Brian H.

Not a chance, barring anything scandalous or catastrophic.

Six years removed from a 17-season playoff famine, the Bills look like perennial winners with legitimate Super Bowl hopes. Over their six years together, Beane and McDermott have reached the postseason five times.

Granted, a vocal segment of fans already have grown impatient about not reaching a Super Bowl and are kvetching at the thought of wasting Josh Allen’s potency.

But let’s remember who would be making the decision to fire Beane (or McDermott): Terry Pegula is tried of wandering the sports darkness.

Right after he bought the Bills, coach Doug Marrone took a buyout, essentially quitting on him. Pegula’s first NFL coaching hire was Rex Ryan, another misfire. Over that time, he retained and leaned upon top executives Russ Brandon and Doug Whaley — two more mistakes.

The Sabres, meanwhile, haven’t made the playoffs a record 11 straight seasons, churning through GMs and coaches.

Now imagine Pegula, having hired a perennial winner in Beane, deciding it was time to roll the dice on another GM.

Something cataclysmic would need to happen.

Is there a possibility Tre White retires? After he came back it did not seem like he was the same person in the way he carried himself — head down, very quiet. Am I overanalyzing or could he be a surprise retirement? — Jack W.

After goalie Dominik Hasek finally won a Stanley Cup with the Detroit Red Wings, a source informed me he was going to retire, a move he’d flirted with and used as leverage against the Sabres before.

Hasek’s agent, Rich Winter, was exasperated: “Could he retire? Yeah, and a comet could fall out of the sky and hit my roof!” Then Winter hung up.

Well, Hasek did retire for the first time, but I always remember Winter’s words when I hear questions such as these.

My guess is that 28-year-old Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White won’t walk away from the three years remaining on his contract with $27.45 million in base salaries alone. He also would need to return a majority of his $10.5 million signing bonus and forfeit — based on my back-of-the-envelope calculation — about another $10 million in roster and workout bonuses.

But check to see if your home insurance is paid up. Just in case.

(Top photo of Kim Pegula: Mark Konezny / USA Today)