Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
NBA Prop Bets
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Made Threes (-120)
The Dallas Mavericks shellacked the Boston Celtics in Game 4, and the heavy dose of garbage time made for another dull end-game conclusion.
But excitement could wane in the right direction tonight. We'll either see Boston raise their 18th banner, or Dallas will send the series back home and gain momentum on an unprecedented comeback.
Either way, we should see Luka Doncic hoist up plenty of threes this evening, so I want in on his made threes prop.
In Game 4, Doncic went 0-for-8 from downtown before sitting the entire fourth quarter due to a blowout. This uncharacteristic and suppressed performance leaves us with some decent value on tonight's three-ball prop.
Doncic's powerful play on the road has undermined home playoff stereotypes. He is averaging 4.0 three-point makes (3PM) and has drained over 3.5 3PM in 8 out of 11 road postseason contests, including both games in Boston.
He's averaging a meaty 10.3 three-point attempts (3PA) on the road and hasn't had much trouble finding his outside shot in the Finals despite Boston's defensive resume.
The Celtics have found success in limiting Dallas' role players and forcing Doncic to play in isolation. This paired with Doncic's already intriguing shot volume makes for a lethal combo, and I'd expect him to take every opportunity from long range in an elimination game.
Daniel Gafford Over 10.5 Pts + Reb (-113)
Kristaps Porzingis' (lower leg) injury status has given Dallas new life, and I don't have much faith that Boston's rim protector will appear in tonight's battle.
Dereck Lively's usage and output has seen the biggest increase since Porzingis returned to the sidelines, but I'm a bit more interested in the number we are getting on Daniel Gafford's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop.
Gafford has been a steady producer in the starting lineup. He's averaging 14.8 PR and has cleared 10.5 PR in 16 out of 21 postseason games. We've seen similar production in the Finals, as Gafford is averaging 13.8 PR and has exceeded 10.5 PR in all but one game.
In Games 1 and 2, the Mavs were averaging just 43 rebounds and 50 paint points. But since Porzingis has been out, they've been netting 47.5 rebounds and 56 paint points.
The lobs have been there for Dallas and I wouldn't be surprised if they immediately employ the Doncic-to-Gafford connection coming out of the half.
While Gafford shares a role with Lively, there is some safety embedded in his status as a starter and he is less foul-prone than Lively.
Derrick White Over 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-111)
Following a highly atypical 29-for-80 (36.3 FG%) shooting night, we can go down the list of Boston players who are coming off a sour performance.
Derrick White contributed a mere 11 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) in Game 4 but should find new life at home.
Despite hitting the floor on Friday, White is still averaging 25.2 PRA and has surpassed 24.5 PRA in 11 out of 18 playoff games.
He's been more productive at home, netting 26.6 PRA and clearing 24.5 PRA in 7 out of 10 games.
Leading into the Finals, White converted rebound chances to the stat sheet at a 53.9% rate, but he's been converting those chances at only a 45.4% rate in this series. We could see some regression here -- as well as in the scoring column.
White owned a 46.1% FG% in the regular season and shot the ball at a 47.1% clip in the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, he's struggling with a 38.6% FG% in the Finals.
He's averaging a series-leading 4.5 3PA that are considered wide-open looks but is nailing those shots at a below-average 33.3% rate.
White leads Boston in three-point shot volume (8.5 3PA) and has been one of their top three-point shooters all season, so I'm expecting positive regression to rear its head in a few areas this evening.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
